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Axis and Allies Combat Calculator – Battle Odds & Expected Losses Instantly

Simulate any Axis & Allies battle with our advanced Monte Carlo calculator. Get precise attacker/defender win percentages, average unit casualties, and IPC cost analysis for informed strategic decisions.

10,000‑Run Simulation Official Unit Stats Client‑Side Privacy

Axis and Allies Battle Simulator

Enter the number of each unit type for both attacker and defender. The simulator runs 10,000 full battles to estimate win/loss/draw probabilities and average casualties.

Attacker Forces

Defender Forces

Set up forces, then click Calculate Battle Odds to run 10,000 simulations.

Axis and Allies Combat Probability Formula Explained

The battle outcome is determined by a Monte Carlo simulation that follows the official 1940 rules. Each round every unit rolls one die. The hit probability for a unit depends on its attack or defense value.

Hit probability = unit's attack (or defense) value / 6

Casualties are removed after each round following standard casualty selection: the opposing player chooses which units to eliminate, and our simulation defaults to removing the cheapest IPC cost units first (Infantry → Artillery → Tank → Fighter → Bomber).

Unit Statistics Reference

UnitAttackDefenseIPC Cost
Infantry123
Artillery224
Tank325
Fighter3410
Bomber4115

How Axis and Allies Combat Works

  1. Declare battle – Choose which territory to attack and commit your attacking units.
  2. Roll attack dice – Each attacking unit rolls one die. If the roll ≤ the unit's attack value, it scores a hit.
  3. Defender assigns casualties – The defender chooses which of his own units are destroyed, one per hit. Usually the cheapest units are removed first.
  4. Roll defense dice – Surviving defenders each roll one die, hitting on ≤ their defense value.
  5. Attacker assigns casualties – The attacker removes his own units according to the number of defender hits, following a similar cheapest‑first logic.
  6. Repeat or retreat – If both sides still have units, a new round begins. The attacker may choose to retreat after any round.

Axis and Allies Battle Calculation Examples

Example 1: 10 Infantry vs 5 Infantry (Defender)

Attacker: 10 Inf (attack 1 each). Defender: 5 Inf (defense 2). After 10,000 simulations, typical outcome: Attacker wins ~72%, Defender wins ~15%, Draw ~13%. Average attacker loss ~4.2 Inf, defender loss ~4.8 Inf.

Example 2: 3 Tanks + 2 Fighters vs 8 Infantry

Attacker: 3 Tanks (att 3) + 2 Fighters (att 3). Defender: 8 Inf (def 2). Attacker win rate ~89%, defender win ~6%. Despite fewer units, high attack values overcome numerical disadvantage.

Example 3: 1 Bomber vs 1 Infantry

Bomber attacks at 4 (hit on 1‑4), Infantry defends at 2. Over many battles the bomber wins ~67% of the time, but if it misses the infantry might survive and counter‑attack.

Dice Rolling Mechanics in Axis and Allies

Every combat round follows the same sequence. The Monte Carlo simulator replicates this thousands of times to give you a statistically reliable picture.

  • Each unit contributes 1 die regardless of type.
  • Attacker scores a hit if the die ≤ unit's attack value.
  • Defender scores a hit if the die ≤ unit's defense value.
  • Total hits are applied simultaneously; casualties are removed before the next round.
Expected attacker hits = Σ ( attack_value(i) / 6 ) for all attacker units

People Also Ask About Axis and Allies Combat

Combat is resolved in rounds. Each unit rolls one die per round. The attacking player hits on a roll ≤ the unit's attack number; defenders hit on ≤ defense number. After both sides roll, casualties are chosen (cheapest units first by default) and removed. Rounds continue until one side is wiped out or the attacker retreats.
Tanks and Fighters (attack 3) offer a strong balance of cost and hitting power. Bombers (attack 4) are devastating but expensive and fragile on defense. Infantry, while weak attackers (1), are excellent for absorbing hits due to their low IPC cost.
The default simulation runs 10,000 independent battles, giving win/loss percentages with a margin of error below ±1%. The results closely mirror theoretical probabilities derived from binomial distributions, but actual game variance means individual battles can still deviate.
The current version runs battles to elimination – it does not model retreat after a certain number of rounds. This gives a conservative estimate of the attacker's staying power. For a more nuanced view, you can compare results after a fixed number of rounds by modifying the simulation code manually.
The standard unit types are Infantry (cost 3, att 1, def 2), Artillery (4 IPC, att 2, def 2), Tank (5 IPC, att 3, def 2), Fighter (10 IPC, att 3, def 4), and Bomber (15 IPC, att 4, def 1). Anti‑aircraft guns and industrial complexes are not combat units but affect certain battle rules.

Frequently Asked Axis and Allies Calculator Questions

The calculator already includes all standard combat units (Inf, Art, Tank, Ftr, Bmb). If you need to simulate AA guns or industrial complexes, please note those are not direct combat units and are not modeled in this version.
On a modern device, 10,000 simulations complete in under a second. The loading spinner appears briefly to indicate processing, but the calculation is extremely fast. You can increase the simulation count in the code if desired.
Yes, it follows the 1940 Second Edition rules for unit attack/defense values and casualty selection. It does not include optional rules like artillery support or technology upgrades.
A draw occurs when both the attacker and defender are completely eliminated in the same round, leaving no survivors on either side. This outcome is rare but can happen when both sides roll extremely well.
You can use the “Copy Config” button to copy the unit counts to your clipboard, or use the Share button to share a link to the calculator. The URL does not store the configuration, but you can note the numbers manually.
Yes, because expected hits only gives an average, it can't capture the full probability distribution. The Monte Carlo simulation accounts for variance, critical rounds, and the effect of unit removal order, providing a much richer strategic picture.

Axis and Allies Battle Glossary

Attack Value

The number a unit needs to roll ≤ on a six‑sided die to score a hit when attacking.

Defense Value

The target number for a defending unit's die to score a hit.

IPC (Industrial Production Credit)

The in‑game currency used to purchase units. Our calculator sums IPC losses.

Casualty Selection

The process of choosing which units are removed after hits. Our simulation defaults to cheapest‑first (lowest IPC).

Monte Carlo Simulation

A computational method that runs many random trials to estimate probabilities. We run 10,000 full battles.

Expected Hits

The average number of hits a side will score in one round, calculated as sum of each unit's hit probability.

Retreat

The attacker's option to withdraw after any round. Not modeled in our elimination‑only simulation.

Fodder Units

Cheap infantry used to absorb casualties, preserving more expensive tanks and planes.

Editorial Review & Methodology

This Axis and Allies combat calculator was developed and reviewed by the NumbrWiz Editorial Team. The simulation logic is based on the official Axis & Allies 1940 Second Edition rulebook and cross‑referenced with community‑verified combat resolution.

  • Formula verification: Hit probability values and unit stats match the published game data.
  • Edge case testing: Tested with zero‑unit forces, all‑infantry slugfests, mixed armies, and extreme odds.
  • UX review: Clear unit entry, loading indicator during simulation, and accessible result presentation.

Transparency note: All calculations run entirely in your browser. No battle data is collected or stored. This is an unofficial fan utility tool; results are for planning and educational purposes. Verify critical battle decisions with additional analysis.

Page last reviewed: May 2026 · NumbrWiz Editorial Team